| Effects of global climate change on ungulate
resources of the arctic coastal plain
Changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide during the last century have
prompted concern about the effects of related changes in the earths climate, and, in turn,
their effects on terrestrial ecosystems. It has been predicted that northern latitudes
will experience the greatest increase in mean winter temperatures. In higher latitude
regions, there is a tendency for warmer winters to be more snowy. Earlier researchers
hypothesize that increased CO2 concentrations will reduce shortwave radiation absorbed by
active snow layers and therefore delay the onset of spring snowmelt. However, a CO2
induced warming trend has been hypothesized by Foster (1989) to result in an earlier
snowmelt date in the arctic and, therefore, an overall increase in the length of the
snow-free period. Global change has the potential for altering date of snowmelt on the
coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Increased precipitation may
result in delayed melting of an increased snow pack, delayed green-up and changes in
forage availability. Alternatively, warmer air temperatures may accelerate snow melt and
have an effect on vegetation phenology. Changes in timing of snowmelt may have measurable
effects on migratory caribou that use the coastal plain. The timing of calving and the
selection of calving sites in the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH) have been associated with
degree of snowmelt. Early or late snowmelt caused by global change may affect surface and
subsurface moisture levels through changes in the depth of the permafrost layer. Changes
in hydrology and soil temperature may affect tundra vegetation production, phenology, and
forage quality, which would, in turn have an effect on movements, condition, and survival
of large herbivores of the coastal plain. Weather data at micro- and meso-scales from the
Brooks divide to the coastal plain within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is not
available from conventional sources. The Service has recently established 6 remote weather
stations to collect air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction, solar
radiation, and barometric pressure measurements from the coastal plain and adjoining
foothills. The resulting data will enable micro- and meso-scale interpretation of weather
and weather patterns within the 2.5 million acre study area. Information collected and
analyzed in this study will assess the potential impacts of climate change on use of the
resources by herbivores. |